Bio for Stately Victor
Stately Victor was undistinguished through his first seven starts before he posted a stunning 4 ¼-length victory in the Grade 1 Blue Grass at odds of 40-1. Following that upset victory over Keeneland’s Polytrack, Stately Victor passed tiring rivals to finish eighth in the Kentucky Derby in his return to conventional dirt. The son of Ghostzapper appears to have come out of the Derby in good order, having earned a bullet for his 1:00 1/5 five-furlong breeze at the Churchill Downs Trackside Training Center on May 15. A large, imposing horse with a long stride, trainer Mike Maker believes Stately Victor is well-suited for the Belmont’s 1 ½-mile distance and the track’s long, sweeping turns.
Click here to view Past Performances
Prep Recap
| Date |
Trk |
Race |
Chart |
Distance |
Finish |
BSF |
Video |
| 4/10 |
KEE |
Blue Grass Stakes |
Chart |
1 1/8 miles |
1st |
94 |
 |
| 5/01 |
CD |
The Kentucky Derby |
Chart |
1 1/4 miles |
8th |
91 |
|
Profile by Brad Free
Strengths: This list is short. In nine career starts, Stately Victor has run only one outstanding race. That was on the Polytrack surface at Keeneland, where he won the Blue Grass by more than four lengths at odds of 40-1. While his eighth-place finish in the Kentucky Derby was merely average, there is some solace - five of the last 10 Belmonts were won by horses coming out of the Derby.
Weaknesses: What is Stately Victor doing here? His four previous starts on dirt produced little of consequence - eighth in the Derby and runner-up in a maiden sprint at age 2. Even his Blue Grass must be viewed with skepticism; he previously had done nothing to suggest imminent Grade 1 victory. His win in the Blue Grass looks like another unfathomable synthetic surface upset that undermines basic handicapping principles. Even if Stately Victor reproduced his 94 Beyer Speed Figure on synthetic, it probably would not be good enough to win the Belmont.
Strategy: There is no secret strategy with a deep closer such as Stately Victor. The only thing that a jockey can do with a no-speed late-runner is allow him to settle, get him comfortable, and hope the speed backs up. Stately Victor will be positioned in the rear flight and try to win it from behind. Good luck.
Value: The past 10 years, it has been unwise to eliminate no-hope outsiders in the Belmont - five of the last 10 winners returned $25 or more. Notwithstanding recent Belmont history, little in Stately Victor's past performances suggests he can win a legitimate Grade 1 over a dirt surface. Perhaps at 20-1 or higher, he is worth a flyer based on the chaotic nature of the Belmont. Anything less would qualify as a severe underlay.
Pedigree Analysis By Dan Illman
Sire: Ghostzapper was one of the fastest and most versatile handicap horses in recent memory. He earned Beyers of 99 and higher in 10 of 11 lifetime starts and received Beyers of 120 or greater in four races, including a 128 for his score in the nine-furlong Iselin Handicap over a sloppy Monmouth strip. Ghostzapper won at distances ranging from six furlongs to 1 1/4 miles and took four Grade 1 races, including the Breeders' Cup Classic at 10 furlongs, the Metropolitan Handicap at a mile, and the Vosburgh at 6 1/2 furlongs. Stately Victor is the lone graded stakes winner from Ghostzapper's first crop. It is expected that Ghostzapper's progeny will improve with added maturity and distance.
Dam: Collect the Cash won her maiden going a mile on dirt, but she earned Grade 1 glory in winning the Queen Elizabeth II Invitational Challenge Cup at 1 1/8 miles on grass. She did her best running going long on the turf, and Stately Victor's half-sister, Money My Honey, earned black type by finishing third in the Wonder Where Stakes at 1 1/4 miles over yielding turf. The second dam, Worldly Possession, was a stakes winner going five furlongs on turf. One of her half-brothers, Dr. Bobby A., was a Grade 3 winner at a mile on dirt. The third and fourth dams were both stakes winners.
Outlook: Distance shouldn't be a problem for Stately Victor, but the female family tilts this pedigree to grass and, perhaps, synthetic surfaces. Stately Victor is 0 for 4 on dirt and may take after that branch of his pedigree.